A Evolução Biológica é considerada um eixo unificador da Biologia, por estabelecer conexões entre diferentes áreas, tornando o conhecimento biológico mais coerente e inteligível. A Evolução frequentemente é considerada polêmica, com mal-entendidos historicamente difundidos que dificultam sua compreensão. Embora não seja objetivo da Evolução deslegitimar a fé, a religião foi abalada pela publicação de “A Origem das Espécies”. Com o intuito de aproximar o conhecimento evolutivo do cotidiano das pessoas, o programa de extensão “Evolução Para Todos” realiza divulgação científica abordando (...) diferentes temáticas sob a ótica evolutiva. Durante a mesa-redonda “Desmistificando o Ensino de Evolução”, um formulário online foi preenchido voluntariamente pelos ouvintes. Foi possível investigar a influência religiosa na compreensão da teoria evolutiva na concepção de 201 participantes. A maioria deles compreende a ancestralidade comum entre humanos e chimpanzés, e considera que a religião é a principal causa de polêmica em torno da Biologia Evolutiva. Para muitos participantes, é possível conciliar crenças religiosas e Evolução, entretanto uma pequena parcela deles adotou uma postura negacionista em relação a princípios evolutivos e considerou-a incompatível com seus dogmas religiosos. Estes resultados destacam a importância da divulgação científica na desconstrução de paradigmas e na socialização do conhecimento científico para além do meio acadêmico. (shrink)

O presente artigo problematiza o lugar das relações étnicas na Educação, a partir da articulação de juventudes, identidades e temas afro-brasileiros. Ancorada no método etnográfico e na Hermêutica de Profundidade, a pesquisa partiu das vivências de estudantes e egressos do Colégio Estadual José Araújo Pereira. A produção do conhecimento afro-brasileiro se apresenta alicerçada nos saberes de legados africanos e na difusão de temas, em constraste com os antagonismos enfrentados pelos sujeitos mobilizadores desses saberes. Ao problematizar etnicidade, relações étnicas e identidade (...) étnica, a pesquisa discute os desafios dos estudos étnicos na Educação e aponta a necessidade de ações planejadas para a geração de registros, publicidades e continuidades de trabalhos que fortalecem o protagonismo juvenil na produção do conhecimento afro-brasileiro. Palavras-chave: Etnicidade. Protagonismo juvenil. Conhecimento afro-brasileiro. (shrink)

Abstract: The Pull Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hy- potheses is applied to a Multivariate Normal Structure (MNS) model. In the FBST we compute the evidence against the precise hypothesis. This evi- dence is the probability of the Highest Relative Surprise Set (HRSS) tangent to the sub-manifold (of the parameter space) that defines the null hypothesis. The MNS model we present appears when testing equivalence conditions for genetic expression measurements, using micro-array technology.

Purpose: To analyze how individual characteristics and the social context are associated with mental distress symptoms in the Brazilian population.Method: A multilevel cross-sectional study with data from the 2013 National Health Survey. There were two dependent variables: decreased vital energy and somatic symptoms, the presence of depressive thoughts. The independent variables were biological characteristics, education and income, habits and lifestyle, and context variables. Bivariate analysis was performed, and Prevalence Ratios calculated in a Poisson Regression. A multilevel Poisson Regression was performed (...) to verify the effect of individual and contextual variables.Results: Regarding depressive thoughts, young and middle-aged individuals, low education, women, absence of partner, smokers or former smokers, and absence of health insurance were the categories at highest risk; belonging to classes D-E and living in states with lower expected years of schooling proved to be protective factors. Similar results were found for the second outcome.Conclusions: Symptoms of mental distress were associated with the individual characteristics and contextual aspects of the federation unit. These findings indicate the importance of strengthening psychosocial care aimed at vulnerable groups. (shrink)

IntroductionMother–child interactions during the first years of life have a significant impact on the emotional and cognitive development of the child. In this work, we study how a prenatal diagnosis of malformation may affect maternal representations and the quality of these early interactions. To this end, we conducted a longitudinal observational study of mother–child interactions from the gestational stage until the baby completed 12 months of age.Participants and MethodsWe recruited 250 pregnant women from a local university hospital. Among them, 50 (...) mother–infant dyads participated in all stages of the study. The study group consisted of 25 pregnant women with fetuses with some structural alteration and the control group consisted of 25 pregnant women with fetuses without structural anomalies. We collected obstetric and socio demographic data and pregnancy outcomes. Anxiety and depressive state data were collected using the COVI and Raskin Scales. We video-recorded the mother–infant interactions during several stages, including when the child was a newborn and when the child was 2, 4, 6, 9, and 12 months of age. The quality of the mother infant interactions were measured using the Coding Interactive Behavior. The interactive moments recorded on video was composed of three different activities, each one lasting appoximately 3 min, which included Free Interaction, where the mother was instructed to interact “as usual” without any toy, Toy Interaction, where the mother and baby played with a puppv, and Song Interaction, where the mother and baby interacted while the mother sang the “Happy Birthday” song.ResultsIn the gestational phase, there was a significant difference between the groups with respect to anxiety and depression scores, which were significantly higher for the study group. In the postnatal phase, we found significant differences between the groups with respect to CIB scales after the child completed 6 months of age: the study group presented significantly higher values of Maternal Sensitivity at 6 months of age, of Baby Involvement at 9 and 12 months of age, and of Dyadic Reciprocity at 6, 9, and 12 months of age, while the control group presented significantly higher values of Withdrawal of the Baby at 6 months of age, and of Dyadic Negative States at 6 and 9 months of age.ConclusionThe support offered by the study favored the mother–infant bond and had a positive effect on the quality of interaction during the first year of life, despite the presence of prenatal diagnosis. (shrink)

This article gives a conceptual review of the e-value, ev(H|X) – the epistemic value of hypothesis H given observations X. This statistical significance measure was developed in order to allow logically coherent and consistent tests of hypotheses, including sharp or precise hypotheses, via the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST). Arguments of analysis allow a full characterization of this statistical test by its logical or compositional properties, showing a mutual complementarity between results of mathematical statistics and the logical desiderata lying at (...) the foundations of this theory. (shrink)

Esse estudo traz como inquietação saber o discurso do professor sobre sua condição de trabalhador na escola pública atual. Esforçamos por tecer reflexões a partir das contribuições de Gramsci em sua teoria sobre a Educação e o papel do Estado. Os professores têm nos reveladas três categorias centrais, a saber: 1) a sobrecarga de trabalho que lhe são atribuídas; 2) os baixos salários e 3) a falta de reconhecimento social da profissão. Importa afirmar que as aproximações do pensamento gramsciano sobre (...) a educação apontam pistas para delinearmos possíveis horizontes de resistência e de construção de uma nova consciência de classe.This study brings anxiety to know how the discourse of the teacher about their status as workers in public school today. Strive to make reflections on the contributions of Gramsci in his theory on education and the role of the state. Teachers have revealed the three core categories, namely: 1) the workload assigned to it, 2) low wages and 3) the lack of social recognition of the profession. It said that the approaches of Gramscian thinking about education point out possible avenues for horizons of resistance and construction of a new classconsciousness. (shrink)

This article discusses Axel Honneth’s recent theory of recognition, as exposed in his book Freedom’s Right. The argument defended here is that Honneth’s approach does not apprehend the normative implications of political conflicts, for it relies on what some critics have called normative history. Against that approach, this paper defends a model of social theory that is not committed to normative presuppositions of analysis. Rather, it seeks to understand how political struggles strive for normative authority. As an illustration of forms (...) of recognition that are alternative to the ones Honneth calls normative, the paper builds on an example from Brazilian society. (shrink)

Introduction: The present study aimed to investigate the effects of two high-intensity interval training shuttle-run-based models, over ten weeks on aerobic, anaerobic, and neuromuscular parameters, and the association of the training load and heart rate variability with the change in the measures in young futsal players. Methods: Eleven young male futsal players participated in this study. This pre-post study design was performed during a typical 10 weeks training period. HIIT sessions were conducted at 86% and 100% of peak speed of (...) the FIET. Additionally, friendly and official matches, technical-tactical and strength-power training sessions were performed. Before and after the training period, all players performed the FIET, treadmill incremental, repeated sprint ability, sprint 15-m, and vertical jump tests, and the HRV was measured. Training load was monitored using the session rating of perceived effort. Data analysis was carried out using Bayesian inference methods. Results: The HIIT86 model showed clear improvements for the peak oxygen uptake, peak speed in the treadmill incremental test, first and second ventilatory thresholds, RSA best and mean times, CMJ, and SJ. The HIIT100 model presented distinct advances in VO2peak, peak speed in the treadmill incremental test, RSA mean time, and CMJ. Between HIIT models comparisons showed more favorable probabilities of improvement for HIIT86 than HIIT100 model in all parameters. TL data and HIIT models strongly explained the changes in the RSA mean and best times, as well as HRV changes, and HIIT models explained positively VO2peak changes. All other changes in the parameters were low to moderately explained. Conclusion: The HIIT86 proved to be more effective for improving aerobic, RSA, and neuromuscular parameters than HIIT100 during a typical 10-week futsal training period. So, strength and conditioning specialists prescribing shuttle-run intermittent exercises at submaximal intensities can manage the individual acceleration load imposed on athlete increasing or decreasing either the set duration or the frequency of change of direction during HIIT programming. (shrink)

Neste texto, os três professores que presidiram até hoje a Comissão Brasileira de Filosofia Medieval fazem um histórico da mesma, salientando 0s encontros e congressos realizados, as publicações feitas e os projetos para o futuro.

SOUZA PINTO. L. E. A concepção biocêntrica e sua viabilidade na doutrina da igreja católica . Dissertação (Mestrado) 2013. 94f - Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais, Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciências da Religião, Belo Horizonte. Palavras-chave: Antropocentrismo. Biocentrismo. Catecismo da Igreja Católica.

Normal 0 21 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Esta experiência interdisciplinar buscou como desafio discutir entre adolescentes de uma escola pública do Município de Vila Velha/ES o conceito de patrimônio cultural e, a partir desse conceito, reconhecer os bens materiais e imateriais formadores do patrimônio daquele município. O trabalho de campo resultou na criação estética coletiva de uma leitura do Convento da Penha, que foi retratado pela técnica de mosaico em papel. A obra encontra-se em exposição permanente no hall da escola (...) denominada Unidade Municipal de Ensino Fundamental” Profa. Nair Dias Barbosa”, situada em Vila Velha – ES. Palavras chave: Convento da Penha. Lugares de memória. Identidade Cultural. (shrink)

Este artigo busca desenvolver a ideia de pop’filosofia, noção presente em Deleuze, como base para uma pop’educação. Buscaremos ferramentas de leitura presentes em Deleuze, Espinosa, Nietzsche, Paulo Freire e Manoel de Barros para com elas tematizarmos as relações de ensino e aprendizado a partir do cinema.

Normal 0 21 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Esta experiência interdisciplinar buscou como desafio discutir entre adolescentes de uma escola pública do Município de Vila Velha/ES o conceito de patrimônio cultural e, a partir desse conceito, reconhecer os bens materiais e imateriais formadores do patrimônio daquele município. O trabalho de campo resultou na criação estética coletiva de uma leitura do Convento da Penha, que foi retratado pela técnica de mosaico em papel. A obra encontra-se em exposição permanente no hall da escola (...) denominada Unidade Municipal de Ensino Fundamental” Profa. Nair Dias Barbosa”, situada em Vila Velha – ES. Palavras chave: Convento da Penha. Lugares de memória. Identidade Cultural. (shrink)

Clearing algorithms are at the core of modern payment systems, facilitating the settling of multilateral credit messages with (near) minimum transfers of currency. Traditional clearing procedures use batch processing based on MILP - mixed-integer linear programming algorithms. The MILP approach demands intensive computational resources; moreover, it is also vulnerable to operational risks generated by possible defaults during the inter-batch period. This paper presents TORC3 - the Token-Ring Clearing Algorithm for Currency Circulation. In contrast to the MILP approach, TORC3 is a (...) real time heuristic procedure, demanding modest computational resources, and able to completely shield the clearing operation against the participating agents’ risk of default. (shrink)

In this essay we will argue for the following theses: 1- know-how is not a form of practical knowledge devoid of propositional sense; 2- the relationship between each perception and the body itself is metaphysically contingent (organisms and bodies can vary, as can even the spaces they occupy in the same experience vary), 3- it is up to the brain to configure or to shape a physical body (Körper) into a living body (Leib) and not the other way around; 4- (...) phenomenal externalism of enactivist nature, even in its mild form, is empirically implausible: the correlation between the conscious character of sensory experience with spatiotemporal neuronal patterns is much more systematic and regular than with anything outside the brain. But in its radical form is entirely implausible and contra-intuitive: phenomenal duplicates are not necessarily duplicates of agency; in short, 5-we are our own brain that has a body, avatars, and artifacts, properly configured, and molded by the brain, and not a body that has a brain among other essential organs. (shrink)

A história da filosofia no Brasil começa em 1572, quando foi inaugurado o curso de Artes dos jesuítas na cidade do Salvador, Bahia. Denominava-se “Artes” como abreviatura de “Artes liberais”, significando esta qualificação de “liberais” o caráter contemplativo ou teórico das disciplinas como uma espécie de saber considerado em sua organização e independentemente de objetos aos quais possa aplicar-se, a exemplo da Filosofia, a qual foi referida por Aristóteles como “ciência livre, pois somente esta é para si mesma” (ARISTÓTELES, Metafísica (...) I, 2, 982b). Na Bahia, o colégio instituído para ministrar tais disciplinas, e destinado à formação superior de eclesiásticos e de civis, teve como modelo o seu congênere na cidade portuguesa de Coimbra, denominado Colégio das Artes, o qual fora confiado aos jesuítas desde 1555. O curso de Artes durava três anos e abrangia, além de latim e estudos literários, as disciplinas filosóficas. Estas últimas apoiavam-se nas obras aristotélicas, segundo a Ratio Studiorum, método pedagógico da Companhia de Jesus. (shrink)

Neste início de século a humanidade vem enfrentando muitos e diversos problemas, sejam eles epistemológicos, éticos, sociais, ambientais, políticos ou econômicos. Todos eles, problemas modernos, mas, conforme se defenderá, sem soluções modernas. Os objetivos do artigo são compreender as raízes destas problemáticas, demonstrar que jamais houve modernidade sem colonialidade, uma das razões para que o projeto moderno não seja concluído, e analisar as perspectivas que se abrem a partir da periferia do mundo moderno/colonial. Pensar a partir da periferia, dos lugares (...) e povos oprimidos, abre-nos a possibilidade de epistemologias pluri-versais e de um diálogo horizontal entre os saberes, de forma a concorrer para a reinvenção da emancipação social, sendo esta uma de suas condições essenciais para um conhecimento-reconhecimento que eleva os marginalizados da condição de objeto, como foram historicamente tratados, à condição de sujeitos solidários. (shrink)

Neste capítulo demonstra-se a importância da educação cidadã para a vida de cada indivíduo que opta pela prática da autoinseminação, pois por meio das informações adquiridas, as pessoas teriam uma Competência Crítica em Informação, desenvolvendo dessa forma, certo entendimento de possíveis consequências e efeitos da técnica da Autoinseminação, fato que poderia levá-las à procura por técnicas mais seguras para satisfação do desejo de ter um filho. É exposto durante todo o embasamento que, quanto mais se conquista clareza e explicações através (...) da prática educativa, se torna perceptivo o instrumento privilegiado que se tem disponível - a educação, entretanto, observa-se também pouca exploração desse recurso. Portanto, durante a leitura deste capitulo, será possível visualizar a apresentação do papel contributivo que educação desempenha em relação à problemática que a autoinseminação estabelece atualmente a fim de evitar consequências à saúde da mulher, da criança e de toda a prole e eventuais efeitos jurídicos. (shrink)

RESUMO Este artigo visa promover um diálogo entre os sentidos de “protagonismo” nos campos teatral e educacional, a partir dos estudos de Bakhtin e o Círculo. Para tanto, analisa enunciados presentes em uma pesquisa documental, considerando as ocorrências da palavra “protagonismo” entre os sentidos emergentes, a fim de estabelecer possíveis pontos de contato com a categoria bakhtiniana de autoria. Para a investigação, partimos do texto da Base Nacional Comum Curricular do Ensino Médio e do Projeto Político-Pedagógico de uma universidade federal (...) em diálogo com os sentidos de protagonismo no teatro, em perspectiva educacional. Ao resgatar as cadeias discursivas de cada esfera em particular, a análise permitiu compreender que essa apropriação pela BNCC-EM assume uma nova dimensão discursiva, descaracterizando seus enunciadores e interlocutores originais e não oferecendo subsídios para a construção do protagonismo/autoria. Além disso, evoca um sujeito estudante passivo, refém das determinações do documento que impacta as ações da escola. ABSTRACT This paper aims to promote a dialogue between the senses conveyed by the word “protagonism” in the theatrical and educational fields based on the studies of Bakhtin and the Circle. It analyzes utterances from a documentary study, considering the occurrences of emerging meanings of the word “protagonism” so as to establish possible points of contact with the Bakhtinian category of authorship. From an educational perspective, the investigation stems from the analysis of the Base Nacional Comum Curricular do Ensino Médio [High School National Common Curricular Base] and the Political-Pedagogical Project of a federal university in dialogue with the meanings of protagonism in the theater. By retrieving the discursive threads of each sphere, the analysis allowed the understanding that this appropriation of “protagonism” by BNCC-EM assigns a new discursive dimension to it, decharacterizing its original enunciators and interlocutors and denying subsidies for the development of protagonism/authorship. In addition, it takes learners as passive subjects, who are a hostage to the document’s impositions that impact school actions. (shrink)

Este ensaio aborda as tensões emergentes do antagonismo entre a demanda pelo fomento à disseminação das inovações educacionais e a cultura escolar vigente. Em face da discussão de conceitos e modelos de disseminação das inovações educacionais, são focalizadas as lacunas dos paradigmas de formação docente e suas implicações na conformação da cultura escolar vigente. Nesse contexto, a incorporação do uso pedagógico das Tecnologias da Informação e Comunicação (TICs) aos processos educacionais escolares é problematizada como estratégia promissora à indução da cultura (...) de trabalho docente colaborativo. Num milênio caracterizado por crises que assolam, sobremaneira, as populações globais, o ativo trabalho colaborativo passa a compor, simultaneamente, uma exigência, uma necessidade, um desafio e uma possibilidade de superação da transitoriedade das soluções até então propostas e aplicadas ao enfrentamento das demandas prementes. No cenário contemporâneo de profusão de redes sociais e digitais, a mediação das TICs apresenta-se como mecanismo estratégico, especialmente, para o campo educacional escolar, no que tange à conformação da cultura do trabalho colaborativo. Como promover ações que viabilizem e deem sustentabilidade às propostas e práticas curriculares e pedagógicas compatíveis com perspectiva de conformação da cultura de trabalho colaborativo docente mediado pelas TICs? Eis um dos grandes desafios do sistema educacional brasileiro para o século XXI. (shrink)

One of the effects of the current COVID-19 pandemic is that low-income countries were pushed further into extreme poverty, exacerbating social inequalities and increasing susceptibility to drug use/abuse in people of all ages. The risks of drug abuse may not be fully understood by all members of society, partly because of the taboo nature of the subject, and partly because of the considerable gap between scientific production/understanding and communication of such knowledge to the public at large. Drug use is a (...) major challenge to social development and a leading cause of school dropout rates worldwide. Some public policies adopted in several countries in recent decades failed to prevent drug use, especially because they focused on imposing combative or coercive measures, investing little or nothing in education and prevention. Here we highlight the role of neuroscience education as a valid approach in drug use education and prevention. We propose building a bridge between schools and scientists by promoting information, student engagement and honest dialogue, and show evidence that public policy regulators should be persuaded to support such science-based education programs in their efforts to effect important positive changes in society. (shrink)

Residências Integradas Multiprofissionais em Saúde são programas de pós-graduação caracterizados por ensino em serviço. A ULBRA oferece o programa com ênfase em Saúde do Adulto e do Idoso e Saúde Comunitária. Objetiva-se descrever as atividades realizadas em ambiente hospitalar por enfermeiras. Trata-se de um relato de experiência de enfermeiras residentes em relação ao primeiro ano de formação especializada. O primeiro ano de residência abrangeu atividades em unidades de internação, centro cirúrgico e unidade de tratamento intensivo. Diversas foram as atividades desenvolvidas (...) pelas residentes, abrangendo aperfeiçoamento técnico, produção de conhecimento científico e atuação em gestão e gerenciamento. A presença de tutores e preceptores é fundamental no sentido de discutir, orientar e facilitar a inserção e o desenvolvimento profissional do residente. O programa de residência permitiu aperfeiçoar habilidades nos três campos de atuação da categoria: assistência, gerenciamento e pesquisa. (shrink)

Nosso objetivo é destacar o sentido filosófico no Brasil dos primeiros debates suscitados pela ideia de uma psicologia científica. Para tanto, trabalharemos com os textos de dois autores em especial, Gonçalves de Magalhães e Tobias Barreto. Nosso interesse é o de demonstrar em que sentido estes filósofos foram capazes de oferecer oposição a uma tendência positiva vigente na Psicologia e, ao mesmo tempo, superar o caráter contemplativo da consciência de si inerente à Psicologia sob a égide dos Jesuítas, e em (...) vista da necessidade de modernização filosófica no Brasil. Ao mesmo tempo, pretendemos mostrar que, a despeito da crítica de Tobias a Magalhães, ambos souberam reconhecer a significação do naturalismo em Psicologia, especialmente no que diz respeito à tarefa de inserir o pensamento brasileiro nos rumos da filosofia ocidental. (shrink)

Much forensic inference based upon DNA evidence is made assuming Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) for the genetic loci being used. Several statistical tests to detect and measure deviation from HWE have been devised, and their limitations become more obvious when testing for deviation within multiallelic DNA loci. The most popular methods-Chi-square and Likelihood-ratio tests-are based on asymptotic results and cannot guarantee a good performance in the presence of low frequency genotypes. Since the parameter space dimension increases at a quadratic rate on (...) the number of alleles, some authors suggest applying sequential methods, where the multiallelic case is reformulated as a sequence of “biallelic” tests. However, in this approach it is not obvious how to assess the general evidence of the original hypothesis; nor is it clear how to establish the significance level for its acceptance/rejection. In this work, we introduce a straightforward method for the multiallelic HWE test, which overcomes the aforementioned issues of sequential methods. The core theory for the proposed method is given by the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), an intuitive Bayesian approach which does not assign positive probabilities to zero measure sets when testing sharp hypotheses. We compare FBST performance to Chi-square, Likelihood-ratio and Markov chain tests, in three numerical experiments. The results suggest that FBST is a robust and high performance method for the HWE test, even in the presence of several alleles and small sample sizes. (shrink)

t Intentional sampling methods are non-randomized procedures that select a group of individuals for a sample with the purpose of meeting specific prescribed criteria. In this paper we extend previous works related to intentional sampling, and address the problem of sequential allocation for clinical trials with few patients. Roughly speaking, patients are enrolled sequentially, according to the order in which they start the treatment at the clinic or hospital. The allocation problem consists in assigning each new patient to one, and (...) only one, of the alternative treatment arms. The main requisite is that the profiles in the alternative arms remain similar with respect to some relevant patients’ attributes (age, gender, disease, symptom severity and others). We perform numerical experiments based on a real case study and discuss how to conveniently set up perturbation parameters, in order to yield a suitable balance between optimality – the similarity among the relative frequencies of patients in the several categories for both arms, and decoupling – the absence of a tendency to allocate each pair of patients consistently to the same arm. (shrink)

Intentional sampling methods are non-probabilistic procedures that select a group of individuals for a sample with the purpose of meeting specific prescribed criteria. Intentional sampling methods are intended for exploratory research or pilot studies where tight budget constraints preclude the use of traditional randomized representative sampling. The possibility of subsequently generalize statistically from such deterministic samples to the general population has been the issue of long standing arguments and debates. Nevertheless, the intentional sampling techniques developed in this paper explore pragmatic (...) strategies for overcoming some of the real or perceived shortcomings and limitations of intentional sampling in practical applications. (shrink)

The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hypotheses is presented, with some applications relevant to reliability theory. The FBST is an alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-ualue.s. In the FBST we compute the evidence of the precise hypothesis. This evidence is the probability of the complement of a credible set "tangent" to the sub-manifold (of the para,rreter space) that defines the null hypothesis. We use the FBST in an application requiring a quality control of used components, based (...) on remaining life statistics. (shrink)

This article presents a two level hierarchical forecasting model developed in a consulting project for a Brazilian magazine publishing company. The first level uses a VARMA model and considers econometric variables. The second level takes into account qualitative aspects of each publication issue, and is based on polynomial networks generated by Genetic Programming (GP).

The data analyzed in this paper are part of the results described in Bueno et al. (2000). Three cytogenetics endpoints were analyzed in three populations of a species of wild rodent – Akodon montensis – living in an industrial, an agricultural, and a preservation area at the Itajaí Valley, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The polychromatic/normochromatic ratio, the mitotic index, and the frequency of micronucleated polychromatic erythrocites were used in an attempt to establish a genotoxic profile of each area. It (...) was assumed that the three populations were in the same conditions with respect to the influence of confounding factors such as animal age, health, nutrition status, presence of pathogens, and intra- and inter-populational genetic variability. Therefore, any differences found in the endpoints analyzed could be attributed to the external agents present in each area. The statistical models used in this paper are mixtures of negative-binomials and Poisson variables. The Poisson variables are used as approximations of binomials for rare events. The mixing distributions are beta densities. The statistical analyzes are under the bayesian perspective, as opposed to the frequentist ones often considered in the literature, as for instance in Bueno et al. (2000). (shrink)

Gene clustering is a useful exploratory technique to group together genes with similar expression levels under distinct cell cycle phases or distinct conditions. It helps the biologist to identify potentially meaningful relationships between genes. In this study, we propose a clustering method based on multivariate normal mixture models, where the number of clusters is predicted via sequential hypothesis tests: at each step, the method considers a mixture model of m components (m = 2 in the first step) and tests if (...) in fact it should be m - 1. If the hypothesis is rejected, m is increased and a new test is carried out. The method continues (increasing m) until the hypothesis is accepted. The theoretical core of the method is the full Bayesian significance test, an intuitive Bayesian approach, which needs no model complexity penalization nor positive probabilities for sharp hypotheses. Numerical experiments were based on a cDNA microarray dataset consisting of expression levels of 205 genes belonging to four functional categories, for 10 distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To analyze the method’s sensitivity to data dimension, we performed principal components analysis on the original dataset and predicted the number of classes using 2 to 10 principal components. Compared to Mclust (model-based clustering), our method shows more consistent results. (shrink)

This article describes the Full Bayesian Significance Test for the problem of separate hypotheses. Numerical experiments are performed for the Gompertz vs. Weibull life span test.

Features of threatening cues and the associated context influence the perceived imminence of threat and the defensive responses evoked. To provide additional knowledge about how the directionality of a threat (i.e. directed-towards or away from the viewer) might impact defensive responses in humans, participants were shown pictures of a man carrying a gun (threat) or nonlethal object (neutral) directed-away from or towards the participant. Cardiac and electrodermal responses were collected. Compared to neutral images, threatening images depicting a gun directed-towards the (...) participant induced sustained bradycardia and an increased electrodermal response, interpreted as immobility under attack. This defensive immobility reaction is evoked by high perceived threat and inescapable situations and indicates intense action preparation. Pictures of guns directed-away from the participant induced shorter bradycardia and no significant modulation of the electrodermal response compared to neutral pictures, which might be consistent with the perception of a less threatening situation. The results show that the directionality of threat stimuli is a key factor that prompts different patterns of defensive responses. (shrink)